Harvey, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

370
FXUS63 KBIS 282345
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
645 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and an occasional thunderstorm will continue
  across some parts of western and central North Dakota this
  evening.

- Highs in the 80s today, with humid conditions persisting in
  south central and eastern North Dakota.

- Much quieter weather is expected Sunday into Tuesday, with
  slightly cooler and less humid conditions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder can
be found over the forecast area at this time. With CIN
increasing across western and central North Dakota, further
strong to severe storms such as those previously found over the
James River Valley this afternoon are not generally anticipated
this evening. Showers are generally anticipated to diminish
across the forecast area through the mid to late evening. For
forecast updates, have blended in the latest satellite imagery
and model runs into in the sky cover. Overall, the forecast
remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Currently, a cold front was situated from far northeast ND into
the James River Valley. A very unstable airmass is situated over
eastern ND, with a finger of instability extending back
southwest into far south central ND. Effective shear in the
northern JRV is around 25 knots, but does increase to 40-50
knots over south central ND. An isolated severe thunderstorm has
developed over far northeast Foster county, and into southwest
Eddy county. Another storm had developed a little northeast of
Jamestown. Effective shear will be increasing later this
afternoon and into this evening. We could see a few hours,
through around 00 UTC where a strong to severe thunderstorm is
possible, mainly over the JRV. As the cold front moves east and
we lose our strong daytime heating, the severe threat will
subside. Back to the west, convection has developed over far
northeast Wyoming into west central SD. This is within an area
of ascent ahead of a shortwave over southeast Montana.
Convection is expected to expand over western SD tonight and
track to the east. At this time, it appears the best forcing
will remain south of the border, but we continue to maintain a
chance of thunderstorms along the SD border tonight.

Sunday we cool off and dry out. Highs are expected to range from
the upper 70s north to the mid 80s south. A strong upper level
jet beneath a digging upper trough should provide enough support
to keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms along the
International Border. Severe storms are not expected Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday are expected to be mostly dry with highs
mainly in the 70s Monday and climbing into the 80s Tuesday. An
isolated shower or thunderstorm can not be ruled out in far
eastern portions of central ND due to the position of the
digging upper trough.

A progressive upper flow is in store for the middle through the
end of the work week with periodic chances of thunderstorms.
Although there isn`t currently a strong signal for severe
weather during this timeframe, given the time of year, daily
highs in the 80s and dewpoint into the 60s, strong to severe
storms can not be ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

VFR ceilings and visibility is anticipated at all terminals
throughout the 00Z TAF period. Isolated to scattered showers
and occasional rumbles of thunder can be found across
southwestern and south central North Dakota this evening, and is
expected along the ND/SD border overnight. As of this update,
confidence for showers or storms to move over any given
terminal is too low to mention in the TAFs at this time. Any
showers and storms that do develop across far southern North
Dakota overnight are expected to exit to the southeast by the
mid morning hours. Winds tonight are expected to remain light
and broadly out of the east northeast. Through the late morning
and afternoon on Sunday, winds are expected to turn easterly and
become gusty. Across the north, where a low level jet is
anticipated to develop, wind up to 20 knot sustained with 30
knot gusts are anticipated, including at the terminals of KXWA
and KMOT. Across southwest and south central North Dakota, wind
speeds from 10 to 15 knots and occasional gusts up to 25 knots
are more broadly anticipated.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam/TWH
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...Adam